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Comment: Radical Gains are Serbia’s Losses

09 05 2007  

Nationalist advances may be a storm in a teacup for Serbia, but they threaten to damage its European prospects.

By Aleksandar Vasovic in Belgrade

Although it has shaken Serbia, the election of Radical deputy head, Tomislav Nikolic, to the position of parliamentary speaker, shouldn’t be such a cause for alarm.

Nikolic and his Serbian Radical Party will profit, but not as much as early predictions suggest. In fact, no political player will benefit much from this development.

Serbia’s realpolitik, which has simply created yet another drama, can only damage the country’s progress and international position.

Nikolic’s election marks the final collapse of the so-called pro-democratic bloc that defeated Slobodan Milosevic in 2000. Serbia is about to face a fresh parliamentary vote, as nothing short of a miracle could bring about the formation of coalition government before the May 14 deadline.

It also highlights the rift between President Boris Tadic’s Democratic Party and Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica’s Democratic Party of Serbia, which now has the proportions of the Grand Canyon.

The inability of the democrats, Kostunica’s conservatives, the so-called people’s bloc led by Velimir Ilic and technocrats from Mladjan Dinkic’s G17 Plus, to agree on a division of power came to a head over the pivotal defence, interior and state security portfolios.

Following the adamant refusal of the democrats to back down and hand over all three posts to the DSS, Kostunica came back with a vengeance, and his deputies backed Nikolic for speaker.

With this move, Kostunica also opened several avenues for his future political exploits. As incumbent prime minister, he can stay in power until November if fresh elections are called, provided he manages to calculate well and use all legal means at his disposal.

He can also claim that his caretaker government cannot possibly take part in the upcoming resolution of Kosovo’s future. By allowing Nikolic to take the post, Kostunica is forcing the Radicals to share power, but also responsibility.

And, last but not least, although Serbia’s Central Bank stringently controls the state’s coffers, Kostunica and his allies could now enjoy months of relative luxury, without having to worry about how to satisfy international financial watchdogs.

To pay for the state apparatus, parliament must either adopt the long overdue 2007 budget with a surplus, as recommended by the International Monetary Fund earlier this year, or amend the law on provisional financing for the 3rd quarter.

But in either case, the incumbent government will allocate money without the discipline that comes from being a legitimate cabinet. This means cash is far less likely to be invested in reforms, but rather siphoned off for the imminent new election campaign.

This week’s developments in parliament also indicate that Nikolic, quite possibly the shrewdest Serbian political tactician, did just what he had planned to do.

From his new pedestal, he can influence Serbian politics by dictating parliamentary procedure. He can summon sessions, draft agendas, schedule debates over draft laws and also double as the Serbian president, in the event of Boris Tadic’s unlikely resignation or incapacitation.

Nikolic also has an opportunity to posture as an impartial mediator of the constant bickering between Tadic’s and Kostunica’s rank-and-file, and thus attract voters annoyed with their endless feuding. This is bad news.

The good news is that, if by May 14, Tadic announces he cannot nominate the Prime Minister-designate, or if an unlikely nominee fails to get backing from at least 126 deputies, new elections will be called and the parliament will be automatically dissolved.

This gives Nikolic only a few weeks to exploit his pole position. He could, however gain a few points by leading the parliament that adopts a 2007 budget and saves the country from looming economic hardship.

If the miracle happens, and Tadic and Kostunica make a deal, Nikolic will be placed in an awkward position, but nevertheless retain a few aces up his sleeve.

While, as speaker, he will have to participate in implementing the new constitution he only reluctantly supported - it stipulates Serbia’s ultimate goal is Euro-Atlantic integration and supremacy of international over domestic law – he can still make trouble over Kosovo.

Nikolic can rally his Radicals, Ivica Dacic’s socialists, as well as Kostunica’s and Ilic’s conservatives, to kick and scream over the eventual loss of the disputed territory, and insist on various resolutions that denounce international policies over its new status.

On the flipside, the Democrats, Liberal Democrats of Cedomir Jovanovic and G17 Plus could also try to profit from Nikolic’s appointment. They will use every available lever to pressure, criticise and alienate voters from Kostunica. They can also allow themselves to be constructive over Kosovo’s inevitable independence, as they will be out of power.

If, in the end, the democratic bloc manages to form a government following the new vote, the Kosovo story should be over. They will have to implement something that will be perceived as a fait accompli of the previous leaders, namely Kostunica.

While the Nikolic appointment may be just another twist in Serbia’s ever-fragmenting political game, it comes at a high price for the country’s long-term future. The marriage of convenience between Nikolic and Kostunica has already provoked the disapproval of major international players, not least the European Union. Only Russia has welcomed it, heralding another Serbian swing toward the Kremlin.

Aleksandar Vasovic is BIRN’s Serbia Editor. Balkan Insight is BIRN’s online publication.