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Comment: Romania's Political Drama is Losing an Audience

26 04 2007  

Catalin Dimofte

Once popular president may be deluding himself if he thinks the masses are still engaged in his political squabbles.

By Catalin Dimofte in Bucharest

Old habits die hard. Since both the carrot and stick of the EU accession process were removed in January 2007, when Romania joined the European Union, the turbulent politicians have returned to doing what they are most adept at - fighting each other.

Little or no surprises here. Deepening rifts within the coalition that formed the government after the 2004 general elections occurred first in 2005, when President Traian Basescu attacked the Conservative junior members of the coalition as "immoral". That reference was
clearly to the party leader, Dan Voiculescu, a tycoon with acknowledged links to the communist-era intelligence services, the feared Securitate.

The president's subsequent attacks on the National Liberal Party, PNL, a senior party in the coalition along with Basescu's Democrats, PD, and the party to which Prime Minister Calin Popescu Tariceanu belongs, have further escalated tensions.

At first, Basescu seemed to be making many of the right moves in politics. Whereas the Romanian political left always had a strong party in the Social Democrats, PSD, the forces of the right were divided between two or more parties.

Basescu tried to forge a merger between his Democrats and the Liberals and the Liberal Democrat Party, PLD, was born, staffed by Liberal defectors and headed by a former prime minister and Liberal leader Theodor Stolojan.


But these days, neither Basescu, nor his closest allies within the PD and PLD look as squeaky clean as they once did. His camp includes wealthy businessmen whose practices and reputation are just as questionable as those in the opposing camp.

Then there is the question of his past record. Only those who trust him blindly believe that in the dark days of the 1980s, when he was a Romanian commercial representative in Belgium, he could have filled such a position while being free of links to the Securitate.

Nor is it credible that Romania's commercial fleet could basically disintegrated in the early 1990s, partially during Basescu's tenure as transportation minister, without him having had anything to do with it.

His propensity for relying on Romania's many intelligence services - which may prove fatal to his political career - has also come at a cost.

Finally, one cannot forget his key role in the failure of Romania's first center-right government in the post-communist era from 1997-1998.

The alternative to the good guys vs. bad guys scenario is that the current political struggle is, in fact, all about competition for power and privileged access to abundant EU funds.

Basescu has superb skills as a political street fighter. But even he may have taken a step too far in trying to fight on too many fronts at once. At the same time, he has embroiled himself in struggles against corruption, five of the six parties in parliament, the business oligarchs
and Russia.

In the end, an overwhelming majority of deputies recently voted to suspend him from the presidential office, against the advice of the country's constitutional court.

Three hundred and twenty-two deputies voted in favor of the suspension, 108 against and 10 abstentions. The president's foes even included about a dozen deputies from the two parties that were supposed to be loyal to him, the PD and PLD.

Basescu's PD has now been ousted from the government, along with possibly the most popular minister - certainly in the eyes of the West - the former justice minister Monica Macovei, widely praised for leading a genuine anti-corruption drive.

The PSD, the big losers of the 2004 elections, have staged a de facto return to power through a back door alliance with the Liberals in support of the incumbent minority government.

The PSD president of the Senate, Nicolae Vacaroiu, has meanwhile become interim president until a referendum - scheduled for May 19 that will confirm or revoke parliament's decision to suspend Basescu.

Even the generally diplomatic EU is worried. The EC president, Jose Manuel Barroso sounded an ominous note via a press release in which he recalled that Romania had made commitments, in particular with respect to fighting corruption, and would be obliged to observe them.

As one Romanian PhD student in New York told this author, "As the last country to be accepted into the EU, it's as if we are now struggling to be the first to be kicked out."

Basescu has said he will rest his case with the people. But although he has always been able to rely in his previous political wars on strong public approval, especially amongst younger, urban voters, this time the omens for the upcoming referendum are bad.

Several pro-Basescu rallies held in Bucharest and other major Romanian cities, aimed at showing off support for him, were pale copies of the crowds that propelled him to a spectacular victory in the 2004 presidential election.

A fable may be relevant here. During the American civil war an old African-American was lying under a tree, watching one of the battles, when a Unionist soldier came and asked, "Why don't you come help us, when we're fighting for your freedom?" The old man answered, "Have you ever seen two dogs fighting over a bone?" The soldier said, "Yes." The old man
went on, "Well, was the bone fighting?"

The parallel with the bone is marked. The endless political bickering in Romania has left many people feeling as apathetic as the old man in the tale about the outcome.

That mood of apathy could not have come at worse time for Basescu whose opponents are frantically manoeuvering to make sure he is knocked out for good, including, if need be, passing legislation to change the rules of the political game.

In the end, the assumption of many political analysts that Basescu will easily win early presidential elections may turn out to be false. It relies on a single risky belief, which is that his opponents will not be able to come up with a credible candidate of their own.

Catalin Dimofte is an economics consultant and political analyst, based in Bucharest. Balkan Insight is BIRN's online publication.