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Election Deals Blow to Serbia’s Main Centrist Parties

24 01 2007  Poor showing by two main democratic parties likely to slow formation of new government.

By Dragana Nikolic Solomon in Belgrade (Balkan Insight, 22 Jan 07)

Centrist parties did worse than they expected in Serbia’s first general election and most diplomats and observers predicted difficulties ahead in forming a new government.

But although the hard-line nationalist Serbian Radical Party, SRS, won most votes with 28.5 per cent of ballots on January 21, it will again be denied the chance to form a government as it lacks potential coalition partners.

This means that the so-called democratic bloc will form the new administration. However, analysts say this would not be easy, firstly because of rivalries within the democratic bloc and secondly because no party among them has emerged as the clear leader.

This makes squabbles more likely over ministerial posts, delaying the new government’s formation.

“The new government will [only] be formed on the last day that the law allows,” predicted Dejan Anastasijevic, a political journalist.

A new parliament must be announced within 30 days of the election result being announced or fresh elections may be called. The official results will probably be declared on January 25.

More than 60 per cent of electors cast ballots in the poll, marking the highest turnout since October 2000, when Slobodan Milosevic lost the parliamentary elections.

According to CESID, an NGO monitoring the election process, the Radicals will have 81 seats in the 250-seat parliament. The winner in the centrist camp, the Democratic Party, DS, follows with 65 while the Democratic Party of Serbia. DSS, coalition, led by the outgoing prime minister, Vojislav Kostunica, took 47. The reformist G17 Plus, led by the former finance minister, Mladjen Dinkic, got 19.

Among the smaller parties, Milosevic’s Socialist Party of Serbia, SPS, now led by Ivica Dacic, got 16 seats and the Liberal Democratic Party coalition, led by Ceda Jovanovic, won 15, a surprisingly high score.

Representing ethnic minorities, the Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians, SVM, is to have three seats, the Bosniak List for Sandzak, LZS, two and two Roma parties one each.

In theory, the Democrats, G 17 Plus and Kostunica’s coalition could form a majority with 132 seats. But in practice, it may be difficult for them to cooperate.

Tomislav Nikolic, deputy president of the Radicals, whose leader Vojislav Sesesl is in detention in Hague, told Balkan Insight he accepted his party would not lead the next administration but hailed the result as “a great victory for the SRS who got more votes than any other party in Serbia”.

Nikolic claimed the result showed the democratic bloc was “weakening”, as the SRS gained an extra 100,000 votes since the last election and made evident inroads into the capital, Belgrade, the traditional DS bastion.

He said the Radicals were ready to go to the polls again and again until they formed a government. “We will go to the polls twenty times if need be until we reach 75 per cent of the vote,” Nikolic told Balkan Insight.

The atmosphere in the headquarters of the DS and DSS was less celebratory, reflecting their clear disappointment over doing worse than they expected.

Kostunica’s coalition did especially poorly. It expected to win 20 to 24 per cent of the votes but took only 17 per cent.

At a press conference, Kostunica put on a brave face, saying he was happy with the result. “We are open for negotiations,” he added.

The DS leader, Serbian president Boris Tadic, was more upbeat, insisting the main point was that the pro-European parties had taken two-thirds of the seats and adding that his own party would want to be in the driving seat in the next government.

“The party in the democratic bloc that has the majority of the votes must take priority in forming a new government,” he said, referring to his own party. “The DS is entering government negotiations and demands a mandate to form the new administration; we will not be ready to give this position up.”

However, the atmosphere at headquarters was gloomy, with DS supporters freely admitting disappointment over a relatively poor showing of 22 per cent.

“The DS hoped for a minimum of 25 per cent so the result was below their expectations,” Anastasijevic told Balkan Insight, adding that DS votes had clearly leaked in the direction of G17 Plus and Ceda Jovanovic’s coalition.

“I am tired and I cannot take any individual questions now,” a visibly exhausted Tadic replied, when approached by Balkan Insight.

With fewer seats than it had bargained for, the DS may have to make unwelcome concessions to rival parties that it had not planned to make earlier.

In spite of Tadic’s demands, it may also have to concede the leading post in the government once again to Kostunica, whose party came second within the democratic bloc.

One diplomatic source told Balkan Insight that the DSS and G 17, which are old coalition partners in the outgoing government, might join forces at the negotiating table, forcing the DS to abandon its plans to assume the post of prime minister.

The rows will not only be over the post of prime minister. “The biggest problem will also be over who controls the police and state security,” warned one military expert.

The situation is not helped by the fact that the DS and DSS have been bitter rivals ever since they brought down the Milosevic regime in October 2000.

“Their parties were formed through this conflict, and the party members are against mutual cooperation,” remarked one political observer in Belgrade.

Diplomats in Belgrade agree that forming a new administration could take a good deal of time. “It might take weeks of heavy negotiations and heavy bargaining,” a diplomat told Balkan Insight.

However, some analysts are more optimistic, pointing out that the relatively poor showing of the DS and DSS may jolt them in the direction of cooperation.

According to some party sources, the negotiations would indeed start today (January 22). While the party leaders would wait for official results before they start their negotiations, lower party ranks are to start sharing ideas today, an observer told Balkan Insight.

Zoran Lutovac, Belgrade based analyst, said, “Everyone will be held responsible for it, should the forthcoming negotiations fail [on forming a new government].

“Parties that are unrealistic are bound to be punished by their own voters.”

Indeed, the only alternative to forming a new government is fresh elections, which everyone agrees would be a disaster for the democratic bloc, as voters would be unlikely to show such readiness to support them again.

Dragana Nikolic Solomon is BIRN Serbia director. Balkan Insight is BIRN’s online publication.