With few new ideas, no wonder the electorate is turned off.
By Dragana Nikolic Solomon and Vladimir Sudar in Belgrade
(Balkan Insight, 21 Dec 06)
Serbia is limping towards the next general election, despite claims that
the vote holds the key to the country’s future.
Latest polls predict a close race between the ultra-nationalist Serbian
Radical Party, SRS, and, in the opposite corner, the Democratic Party, led by
President Boris Tadic.
The next runner-up is likely to be the coalition gathered around the
Democratic Party of Serbia, DSS, of Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica.
Observers put voter apathy down to a combination of an over-long campaign,
lasting more then two-and-a-half months, and the lack of new political ideas.
With voting day still far off, it remains uncertain whether the two biggest
centrist democratic blocs will unite to form a government together and keep the
SRS out.
Tadic announced new parliamentary elections for January 21 back in November.
The Radicals, whose leader, Vojislav Seselj, is in the Hague tribunal and
recently ended a hunger strike in protest over his conditions, is going into
the election alone, on pledges to combat organised crime and preserve the
country’s territorial integrity – meaning Kosovo.
Support
for the party hovers between 28 and 30 per cent, making it the largest single
party in the country.
Tadic’s
DS comes next on 24 to 28 per cent of votes, according to polls, making it the
crucial element in any future non-SRS government. Its campaign slogan, For a
better Life, alludes to the party’s heavily economic priorities, which centre
on joining the European Union.
On
the other hand, Kostunica’s alliance, the People's bloc, comprises several
parties, including the New Serbia Party of Velja Ilic, and has a support base
of 17 to 21 per cent, according to the polls.
Under
the slogan Long Live Serbia, Kostunica has tried to combine both democratic and
nationalist ideas and like the Radicals has made much of the need to keep
Kosovo in union with Serbia.
At
an election rally in Kraljevo, in central Serbia,
Kostunica said the work of “building a democratic and stable Serbia” was inconceivable without
Kosovo because “without Kosovo we would need to rewrite our whole history and
we refuse to do that”.
Besides
the big three blocs, several other parties will be striving to cross the
five-per-cent threshold needed to enter parliament.
Likely
winners will include a coalition of parties led by the Liberal Democratic
Party, of Ceda Jovanovic, the reformist G17 of former economics minister
Mladjan Dinkic and the Socialists, once led by Slobodan Milosevic.
The
Liberals, whose slogan is Everything depends on us, are targeting young voters
above all, promising an uncompromising fight against war criminals in
particular.
The
ardently pro-European G17 on the other hand, whose leader, Dinkic, left the
government in protest against the collapse of Serbia's talks with the EU, is
going it alone. The polls predict that this party will narrowly exceed the
five-per-cent threshold.
The
Socialists, who have supported Kostunica’s minority government in parliament
under their new leader, Ivica Dacic, also reckon they will garner enough
support to enter parliament and so continue to be an important factor in the
new government.
In
spite of the SRS lead, most analysts believe a combination of so-called
democratic bloc parties, not the SRS, will form the next administration.
However,
with the campaign far from the finishing post, few dare to predict the shape of
the post-election coalition.
Marko
Blagojevic, of the Centre for Free Elections and Democracy, CESID, says the
sheer length of the campaign has reduced its intensity.
“A
prolongued and monotonous campaign like this can become too much for the
voters,” he said.
Zoran
Stojiljkovic, professor of the political science faculty at the University of Belgrade, agreed, saying the prolonged
campaign was a result of the fact that some parties started electioneering as
soon as the referendum on a new constitution was called at the end of October.
Stojiljkovic
predicted that real electioneering would start only in mid-January following
Orthodox Christmas and New Year.
“From
December 24 until January 15, Serbia
enters a whole series of religious and state holidays,” he said. “During this time the public won’t want to
listen to political messages. The real campaign will only start some seven to
ten days before polling day.”
Cvijetin
Milivojevic, director of the PR agency Pragma, says the process resembles a
marathon that not all parties can keep up with.
“It
will be difficult to maintain the pace, not owing to any lack of energy on the
part of their activists, but because the parties will run out of anything new
to say,” said Milivojevic.
Another
problem for the politicians is widespread disillusionment with the whole
democratic process. Many voters want only to punish the political leadership
for failing to improve their lives.
Despite
the fact that low turn out would mean more votes for the Radicals, it is
believed no party has made its priority to encourage people to just go out and
vote.
According
to recent research by students’ organisations, young people are especially
disenchanted by politics. Some say the problem is such that the parties need to
take urgent notice of the increasing army of disappointed young people who
refuse to take part in politics.
“From
2003 until now, some new 240,000 new voters have been registered, which is
significant number and one that can make a difference,” said Blagojevic.
Ceca,
28, is one of those younger voters who will be skipping the polls again.
“I
don't trust any political party. They
are not capable of delivering and they are making unreal promises,” she said.
Andrej
Nosov, of the Youth Initiative for Human Rights, an NGO that encourages young
people to get involved in politics, told Balkan Insight that Serbia’s political parties were to
blame.
“The
political parties have shown that they haven’t the means to move people into a
new gear and send them any new messages,” he said.
Nosov
added that most election campaigns still resembled the rallies of the Milosevic
era, and criticised the parties for their lack of imagination and direct
contact with the voters.
Nosov
said the campaign slogans had little impact on young people. “Nobody has come
up with a clear message that could appeal to them,” he said. “Kosovo does not
interest young people and Europe is far away
for them to get excited.”
Despite
the probability that the DS and DSS might form the backbone of a new government
together, the two parties have not yet formally agreed on the matter.
Analysts
say this is because each wants to be the main party in the new coalition,
regardless of the fact that the DS looks in a better position.
Stojiljkovic
fears any new arrangement between the two parties will be very complicated,
involving many arguments over who will be at the helm of the new government and
who will hold ministerial positions.
The
DS is also unlikely to cooperate with some smaller parties in Kostunica’s
coalition, such as Dragan Markovic who
was deputy president of the Serbian Unity party run by the war criminal, the
late Zeljko Raznatovic.
Dragan
Petrovic, deputy president of the DS, has sharply criticised Kostunica for
choosing such unsavoury allies.
“No
one who has any connection to criminal activities can be part of our programme
for a better life and European Serbia,” said Petrovic.
Dragana
Nikolic Solomon is BIRN Serbia director. Vladimir Sudar is journalist working
with news agency Tanjug. Balkan Insight is BIRN's online publication.