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Election to Show Whether Serbs Remain Polls Apart

16 11 2006  Vote may reveal limits of Radicals' strength - and complete Tadic's takeover of Democratic bloc.

By Dragana Nikolic Solomon in Belgrade (Balkan Insight, 16 Nov 06)

Serbia's president, Boris Tadic, has called new parliamentary elections for January 21 after parliament last week completed the passage of a new constitution for the country.

The vote is expected to shed light on which political party now dominates the democratic wing of Serbian politics as well as test the strength of Serbia's powerful nationalists.

Integration into Europe, the economy and the future of Kosovo are all likely to be major campaign themes.

The decision to postpone the polls until 2007 was a concession to the nationalist Serbian Radical Party, SRS, and the Socialists, which specifically asked for the elections to go ahead next year, as opposed to the reformist G17 and Tadic's Democratic Party, DS, which preferred them in December.

Many saw the SRS demand as being linked to Kosovo final status talks, believing the party is probably calculating that it would gain votes if a poll were held after the resolution of the negotiation process - which is expected to result independence - when they could accuse the democratic bloc of losing the territory.

The country is now in for the longest parliamentary election campaign since the early 1990s.

Analysts say coalitions are inevitable, as no party is likely to be able to form the government on its own.

One bloc is likely to comprise the Democratic Party of Serbia, DSS, led by the prime minister, Vojislav Kostunica, alongside the New Serbia Party of Velja Ilic, the Serbian Democratic Renewal Movement and some small parties led by popular local figures, such as Dobrivoje "Bidza" Budimirovic and Dragan "Palma" Markovic.

Kostunica's party hopes to gain around 14 per cent of the votes on its own, while its election allies are expected to bring in an additional 10 to 12 per cent.

The DS is also looking for allies among minority parties. The party, which enjoys the support of about 30 per cent of the population, has already offered an electoral alliance to the List for Tolerance, led by Rasim Ljajic, a former minister for minorities.

Another more self-consciously liberal bloc unites the new Liberal Democratic Party, led by Ceda Jovanovic, the Civil Alliance, the Social Democratic Union and the Socialist League of Vojvodina.

The ardently pro-European G17, led by Mladjan Dinkic, a former minister for the economy who left the government in protest over the collapse of Serbia's talks with the European Union, has decided to go at it alone.

This is a high-risk strategy, as the party needs to cross the 5-per-cent threshold to enter parliament and its current level of support hovers around 4.8 per cent.

Observers will keenly follow the fortunes of the main nationalist party, the SRS, whose leader, Vojislav Seselj, awaits trial for war crimes in The Hague.

It has been the largest single party in Serbia for some time, with the support of at least 30 per cent of the population, but lately it has entered into a slight decline.

The Radicals' coalition potential is poor because only the Socialists, once led by Slobodan Milosevic, wish to form a government with them.

But their traditional strength lies in the willingness of their million or so supporters to vote. So the centrists will do better if they can persuade Serbia's habitual abstainers to come to the polls.

Serbia has a fairly low rate of political participation. About 47 per cent of voters normally fail to ballot, including many young people.

Some of those youngsters may be drawn to the Liberals led by Ceda Jovanovic, the one-time leader of anti Milosevic student demonstrations in 1996-97. He is also expected to win over some who normally vote for Tadic's Democrats.

Analysts predict the various blocs all to campaign on their favourite themes, with the DS focusing on EU integration, the fight against poverty and economic and social themes, and Kostunica's team and the Radicals concentrating on nationalist themes, with Kosovo in first place.

Zoran Stojiljkovic, a professor at Belgrade University's Faculty for Political Science, doubts the elections will create major upsets on the political scene.

He said the main points of interest were whether the Radicals maintain or increase their level of support and whether the DS takes over the helm of the Democratic bloc from Kostunica's party.

Slobodan Antonic, professor of sociology at the university's Philosophy Faculty, predicted that EU integration would dominate the campaign rather than Kosovo, and that the main fight would be between the Democrats and the Radicals.

"EU issues and talk about living standards are subjects that put the DS in the advantage," he said.

The second fight would be between the DS and the DSS, he added, with the former in danger of losing centrist votes to G17 and Jovanovic's Liberals. In that case, he said, Kostunica might manage a surprise comeback.

Kostunica is desperately hoping that his coalition partners will bring in enough support for him to be able to carry on as prime minister.

On the other hand, the DS hopes to take enough seats in parliament to seize that position for a member of their own party.

They have a number of potential candidates in mind, including Ivan Vujacic, a former US ambassador; Bozidar Djelic, a former finance minister; and Gordana Matkovic, a former labour and social minister.

Professor Stojiljkovic described the forthcoming election as essentially a fight over two visions, "pro-European and anti-European Serbia, between what the Democrats and the Radicals stand for".

Between these opposing poles were the parties belonging to the present Kostunica government, he went on, as they combined traditional "national" and European values.

"I expect the questions of the Hague and several other difficult issues, such as questions on borders, the country's identity and the conditions for entering the EU to be solved after the elections," he concluded.

On the streets, the potential voters are as divided as ever. "It's the time the country faced reality," said one taxi driver, pledging his support for Jovanovic's Liberals. "We need some fresh new faces on the political scene" one housewife said, indicating she may vote for G17. But Belgrade is not the country - and this straw poll suggested only that there is everything to play for.

Dragana Nikolic Solomon is BIRN Serbia country director. Zelimir Bojovic, of Deutche Welle, contributed to this article. Balkan Insight is BIRN's online publication.