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Contact Group Postpones Plan for Kosovo

10 11 2006  With Russia pulling one way and the West another, agreement at big power summit has been postponed.

By Jeta Xharra in New York and Krenar Gashi in Pristina (Balkan Insight, 10 Nov 06)

Representatives of the world's most powerful states met Martti Ahtisaari, the UN's special envoy for Kosovo, on November 10 in Vienna, in an attempt to hammer out a common approach to resolving Kosovo’s final status.

After the closed-door meeting, Ahtisaari said he would delay issuing a proposal on the future of the territory until after Serbian elections in January.

"I have decided to present my proposal for the settlement of Kosovo status to the parties without delay after the parliamentary elections in Serbia," said Ahtisaari, in a statement sent out by his office, UNOSEC.

This followed calls the same day from Serbian President Boris Tadic for a general poll on January 21, 2007.

Initially, Ahtisaari was expected to present his proposal to the so-called "Contact Group" and then to the UN Security Council, before the end of 2006.

But divisions in the Contact Group have become obvious, with Serbia's old ally, Russia, now seemingly ready to defend its initial position that only a solution supported by both Serbia and Kosovo will fly, and use its veto power in the UN Security Council if this is not forthcoming.

Andrei Dronov, the head of Russia’s office in Kosovo, said that “if there is an attempt to impose a solution that Belgrade doesn’t agree with, Russia will use its veto on the Security Council.”

Agim Ceku, Kosovo's prime minister, has meanwhile stated that, anyway, “Kosovo might declare its independence” rather than wait for consensus in the international community.

While Kosovo’s Albanian majority wants Kosovo to be independent, and very soon, Serbia remains irreconcilable to such an outcome.

Now this division is reflected also in the Contact Group, with its Western members broadly accepting the Kosovars’ right to go their own way, but Russia insisting quite the opposite.

Kosovo has been a UN protectorate since 1999, when NATO’s air campaign forced the Serbian administration to withdraw from the territory.

UN-led negotiations between Serbia and Kosovo on final status started in February 2006 under the auspices of special envoy Ahtisaari. But several months on, the talks are going nowhere.

Ahtisaari’s office in Vienna, UNOSEC, is now finalising a proposal on the future status of Kosovo for the Contact Group and UN Security Council.

While Ahtisaari’s report remains secret, most seasoned observers predict some form of supervised or conditional independence, with the EU playing a key role.

Brussels is already planning its international mission in Kosovo that will be in charge of key areas such as security and justice.

Sources in US State Department confirmed that Washington will support Kosovo’s independence, under international supervision.

Reminding the international community that Kosovo will anyway declare independence, Prime Minister Ceku articulated growing impatience in the disputed territory for the foreign powers' plan.

"This is not a threat. We see this as a possibility. Kosovo will be an independent state and now we are discussing the timeline and possibilities" said Ceku, after meeting Joachim Ruecker, the head of UNMIK, on November 9.

But Russia is not hiding its unhappiness with the drift of events. Andrei Dronov told Balkan Insight that Moscow will not back the imposition of any solution that Serbia cannot accept.

“The Contact Group does not have to accept the proposal from Ahtisaari,” he maintained.

Dronov added that if Kosovo’s status was resolved “without a resolution from the Security Council” – by countries choosing whether or not to recognise a unilateral declaration of independence – “it will set a dangerous precedent”.

The Russian diplomat was clearly referring to other secessionist disputes in Russia’s vicinity, above all in Georgia, where the break-away territory of Abkhazia is striving for independence.

However, Richard Holbrooke, the former American diplomat and wartime mediator in Bosnia, suggested Russia’s threats over Kosovo were mainly bluff. He said he did not believe that “Russians are that stupid” to use their UN veto over Kosovo.

“The Russians don’t give a damn about the Serbs,” Holbrooke added.

Kosovo's political leaders are reluctant to accept any link between their own status and that of other breakaway regions, such as Abkhazia, in Georgia, or Transdniester, in Moldova.

They say the Kosovo case is “sui generis” and will not serve as a precedent for other disputes.

Agim Ceku said he expected Ahtisaari “to propose Kosovo to be an independent state, with all the competences that a state has”.

Hua Jiang, UNOSEC spokeswoman, said the contents of the status envoy’s proposal remained secret – indeed, the text had not even been finished.

But Dronov remains adamant that completion of the envoy’s report will not necessarily end the final-status process.

“If the Contact Group agrees to Ahtisaari’s proposal, they will bring the solution back to the parties,” he said, referring to the Kosovo and Serbian negotiating teams, adding that “Russia would insist on a compromise between parties involved”.

One international official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Balkan Insight that with this lack of consensus between the western states and Russia, and elections now coming up in Serbia, Kosovo’s final status won’t be resolved until at least the middle of 2007.

Jeta Xharra is BIRN Kosovo Country Director. Krenar Gashi is BIRN Kosovo Assistant Editor. Bukurie Bajraliu also contributed to this article. Balkan Insight is BIRN’s online publication.