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Kostunica Seeks to Lay down Serbia’s Election Timetable

24 10 2007  Prime Minister Kostunica seems set to dictate Serbia’s presidential and municipal election dates, despite opposition from his senior coalition partner.

By Julijana Mojsilovic in Belgrade

Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica’s Democratic Party of Serbia, DSS, appears to be exploiting the unresolved issue of Kosovo’s status to postpone both presidential and local elections.

The polling day, or days, is due to be agreed by the end of 2007, but Kostunica has indicated that he may want to put that off until next year. That would allow time to conclude talks on Kosovo’s future before elections are held.

The strength of Kostunica’s drive may, at first sight, look surprising. The DSS is not the main party in the governing coalition. Meanwhile, it is lagging behind in third place in opinion polls.

However, observers say that President Boris Tadic’s Democratic Party, DS, which is trying to stick to the constitutional requirement for elections to go ahead on schedule, is unlikely to hold out. Although the pro-European DS is the largest of the governing parties, Tadic fears that the conservative DSS could easily switch its support to the ultra-nationalists, and create a new ruling bloc with the opposition Serbian Radical Party, SRS.


Belgrade B92 radio said it unofficially learned that the DS leadership decided late on Thursday that the parliament speaker Oliver Dulic would call elections next week for December 9.

Dulic, of the DS, earlier said he was obliged by the constitutional law to do so and that he would, unless political parties agreed on a different date.

The DSS and its junior partner NS have been sending signals that in that case they would boycott the ballot, while the SRS indicated it would take part in the vote.

Many analysts argue that Tadic’s odds on keeping his job as president against an SRS candidate will be diminished if Kosovo goes independent. They believe that in that case, the political situation in Serbia is likely to become more turbulent as the ultra-nationalists are boosted by the electorate’s bitterness over losing part of Serbia’s territory.


Others see the DS-DSS battle as part of the two parties’ attempts to position themselves for the time after Kosovo’s status has been resolved.


Serbian constitutional law stipulates that presidential and local elections should be called before the end of this year. The election campaign can last between 30 and 90 days, which means that the ballot must be held by the end of March 2008 at the latest.

Slobodan Vucetic, a former head of the Serbian Constitutional Court, told Blic daily last week that the election date was not a matter for dispute, therefore the “ruling coalition could either respect the law or change it because it is absolutely clear on this issue. All other readings contradict the law.”

The internationally-brokered negotiations on UN-administered Kosovo are expected to last until December 10, but if Belgrade and Pristina show signs of a possible compromise, the talks could go beyond that deadline. Serbs accept everything but the independence of Kosovo, while the entity’s Albanian majority will not sign up to anything short of it.

The latest opinion poll, published in the Press daily, shows 56 per cent of those polled chose Kosovo as the main issue facing Serbia. The survey also put Tadic on 44 percent, 12 per cent ahead of the SRS’s most likely presidential, candidate Tomislav Nikolic. This is Tadic’s widest-ever lead over Nikolic whom he beat in the last presidential elections in 2004.

Tadic’s current popularity is the reason why some analysts think Kostunica would like the presidential contest postponed. If the vote takes place after the Kosovo talks have been concluded – and the settlement is not favourable to Serbia – the strongly pro-Western Tadic may suffer an electoral backlash. A setback for Tadic would also have a negative impact on the DS’s performance in municipal elections.

However, when it comes to party support, the latest survey by the US International Republican Institute, IRI, office in Serbia shows Nikolic's Radicals on 30.6 per cent, followed by Tadic's Democrats on 28.4 per cent. Kostunica's DSS is a long way behind with 15.9 per cent of respondents backing it, along with its junior coalition partner, New Serbia party.

Although elections are now due, speaking to his party convention earlier this month, Kostunica sent a clear message that the vote should be put off because of “a serious probability that the US, for its strategic interests, will recognize a Kosovo that has unilaterally declared its independence”.

Kostunica also announced a possible amendment of the constitutional law. “When we see what will be a result of the negotiating process on December 10, we will have enough time until December 31 to decide if, and when, we should call elections, or if we should, depending on the situation in Kosovo, change the constitutional law”, Kostunica said.

In what appeared to be obvious reaction to Kostunica’s message, Tadic maintained that “all elections in Serbia will be held within the time framework defined by the constitution and the law”. He told reporters he believed that “no one in the country would violate the constitution because that would be a kind of political pollution.”

Political consultant Nebojsa Spajic believes that neither the DS nor the DSS can be sure of what will happen to Kosovo, and that both parties are still playing their “little political games.”

However, he adds that “the DSS is in the best political position because they can go either left or right [either with the Democrats or the Radicals]. But, I’m convinced that both the DS and the DSS are trying to position themselves as well as possible for the post-Kosovo era,” Spajic told Balkan Insight.

Some observers argue that Tadic and his party risk a great deal by trying to reach a compromise with the DSS on many issues. A source from the DS says the party is experiencing an internal argument over “the policy of political cohabitation with Kostunica at all costs.”

Speaking to Balkan Insight on condition of anonymity, the source said the party would eventually accept elections in March, rather than insist on a polling day this year. “What’s our choice - to confront Kostunica and make it easier for him to turn to the Radicals? Not only will we lose power, but, more importantly, in that case, the country would slide into disaster,” the source said.

Slobodan Antonic, an analyst, believes that the two parties will eventually agree, “like they have done in the past over other issues.” He said that “judging by how the parties’ leaderships are reacting, a decision on whether to hold elections or to amend the constitutional law will be brought between December 10 and December 31.”

Antonic told Balkan Insight that it was “more realistic to call elections at the end of the year because there are a number of laws to be passed before that.” He added that a lot would depend on how close the Kosovo solution will be on December 10. “However”, he said, “in case it is unfavourable for Serbia, the atmosphere will benefit the Radicals.”

In Serbia the dominant mood is one of growing uncertainty. The outcome of the Kosovo talks remains in doubt; and it is not even clear when presidential and municipal elections will be taking place.

Julijana Mojsilovic is a Balkan Insight contributor. Balkan Insight is BIRN`s online publication.