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Accession Leaves Rest of Region Pondering its Options

21 12 2006  States left out of latest enlargement round will gain more than they lose from Bulgaria's and Romania's membership.

By Albena Shkodrova in Sofia, Predrag Popovic in Belgrade, Tamara Causidis in Skopje, and Merim Tenev in Athens (Balkan Insight, 21 December 2006)

On January 1, Bulgaria and Romania will become the first two Balkan states to join the European Union since Greece in 1981.

Their EU membership may not transform everyone's lives immediately but will clearly have an impact eventually.
 
In the short term, the inhabitants of countries in the region that are not joining the EU face extra visa regimes and trade rules.
 
On the other hand, these countries can expect trade to grow, improved access to EU markets, more European funds and the presence in Brussels of sympathetic advocates from their own region.
 
The non-EU states are all at different stages on the path to Brussels. Croatia and Turkey are furthest ahead, having opened direct negotiations already. Albania and the other former Yugoslav republics - Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina - have not opened membership negotiations but have concluded Stabilization and Association Agreements, SAAs, with Brussels.
 
For all states in the region, this is progress. For half a century after the Second World War, totalitarian communist regimes isolated the region from Europe. It was only after 1989, and in Serbia only after the fall of the Milosevic regime, that all the countries in the Balkans united round a platform of integration into the two most important organisations of the West, NATO and the EU.
 
Many see Bulgaria and Romania's membership - part of the EU's fifth round of enlargement - as putting the seal of stability on the region.
 
LESS TRAVEL - BUT A BRIGHTER FUTURE
 
The inhabitants of Serbia, Montenegro and Macedonia will at first feel negative consequences of EU enlargement in the region.
 
Citizens of these countries have until now enjoyed easy access to holidays on Bulgaria's Black Sea, Sofia's night life and the Sandanski and Petric markets near the border.
 
But from January they will all need visas to enter Bulgaria, just as they need them already for all EU countries.
 
Bulgaria has promised to introduce fast, free and easy visa procedures to its neighbours but many Serbians, Macedonians and Montenegrins still feel frustrated.
 
"Although they will be free of charge and the procedure a simple one, the number of our people traveling to Bulgaria will drop," predicted Serbian political scientist Jovan Teokarevic, of the Serbian Center for European Integration.
 
Vukan Jovanovic, from Nis, agrees. He says entering Bulgaria will be just as tough as getting into the EU's Schengen zone countries.
 
"I have a multiple Schengen visa already," he said. "But as Bulgaria is not in the same regime, I will have to queue for a Bulgarian visa separately, which I need as I travel there several times a year."
 
"Each new introduction of visas is frustrating," agreed Ivana Dragutinovic, a Serbian student who holidays regularly in Bulgaria.
 
"I know Bulgaria had to do this and we'll see how it goes but I'm sick of all the bureaucracy every time I want to travel."
 
Marija Mafkova, who lives in Strumica, near the Bulgarian border, said cross-border trips to shop will have to cease as the cost of traveling to Skopje for a visa will be too expensive. "We used to go to Bulgaria very often, usually for shopping, but now this will stop," she said.
 
Mafkova, a journalist, said the new visa regime would affect many poor and unemployed people, who make a living by shuttling to and fro across the border, buying cheap products in Bulgaria and selling them in Strumica.
 
"This kind of grey economy will vanish, and people in Strumica are worried about their future," said Mafkova.
 
The new visa requirement was "another senseless limitation" in the opinion of Valerij Sofronievski, of Skopje. "The Macedonian government should lead a more aggressive and less servile foreign policy," he maintained.
 
Apart from the impact of the new visa obligations on ordinary people, the accession of Bulgaria and Romania has worried some members of the business community in neighbouring countries.
 
"The new rules may raise the price of Bulgarian goods by about 20 per cent, which would be a big blow to trade," said one Serbian businessman who imports bathroom equipment from Bulgaria. "Luckily our Bulgarian partners said they would cut other costs so the increase won't be too drastic."
 
In official circles there is more optimism. "Macedonian exporters will be in privileged position now, as they will export to Romania and Bulgaria without custom and export taxes," said Zlatko Veterovski, a Macedonian customs official.
 
Imports from these countries will also be governed by the rules of the SAA, he added.
 
Currently Macedonian goods are an object of duty taxation when imported in Bulgaria and Romania, but from January 1st their import will be under SAA regulations which, with some minor exceptions, ensure free import in the EU countries.
 
Jelena Bacovic, of the Serbian foreign ministry's office for EU accession, also expects no major trade disruptions, despite the automatic cessation of the old bilateral trade agreements between Serbia and the two new EU countries.
 
"We have good trade relations with the EU," she said, "so we won't be at a big loss in trade with Bulgaria."
 
Bacovic said trade with the two new EU countries would acclimatise Serbia to European norms. "After intensive experience with Bulgaria (and Romania) I expect us to switch to European rules," she said.
 
Bacovic also thinks Serbia's most competitive exports will continue to be exported under the new rules in the same quantities as they have been so far.
 
Silvana Mojsovska, of the Economic Institute in Skopje, is also optimistic about the new opportunities facing Macedonia.
 
"Trade with Bulgaria and Romania is already small," she said. "If we don't develop products that compete on the EU market, we can't expect trade with these two countries to boom."
 
Apart from setting higher standards for the local economies, the accession of Bulgaria and Romania will offer another advantage to the Western Balkans by involving them in many cross-border projects.
 
"Bulgaria is proving eager to support both small and big initiatives," said Jelica Minic of the European Movement in Serbia. "It is a very important partner and can serve as an example of how EU goals can be achieved. I see only positive signals from Bulgaria's accession."
 
Minic believes also that EU enlargement will improve the overall security of the region.
 
"The security situation has really changed for the better," she said. "We are now surrounded by EU member countries that want to see peaceful a Western Balkans."
 
TURKEY: THE SHORT WAY HOME
 
While EU enlargement next month will generally pass unnoticed in Turkey, it will bring the country some solid advantages.
 
EU-related pessimism has grows in the country, which has waited years to open membership negotiations. Recent surveys put support for membership below 50 per cent.
 
While Turks may resent the way Bulgaria and Romania have leapfrogged over them into the EU, the accession of the two states will make life easier for the many Turks who work in EU countries. They will now enter the EU as soon as they cross the western border of Turkey. When Bulgaria joins Schengen agreement, a single visa will entitle them to travel over much of the continent.
 
"Bulgaria lies on the main road that Turkish people and goods take towards Europe, and its incorporation into the Union will be of great benefit to all people in our country," predicted Metin Akin, director of the Anatolian Telegraph Agency in Sofia.
 
Akin says the EU integration process in Bulgaria has helped increase the volume of trade between the two countries by 500 per cent, raising it from 600 million US dollars in 2001 to over 3 billion dollars in 2006.
 
Akin also believes that many Turks who currently enter the EU via Greece, going by sea, will now switch to the land route through Bulgaria.
 
Another advantage to Turkey is that its investments in Bulgaria, now worth about 300 million dollars according to Turkish embassy in Sofia, will become investments in the EU.
 
GREECE: NOT AN ENCLAVE ANYMORE
 
Always supportive of Bulgaria's and Romania's EU aspirations, Greece has good reasons to celebrate: it is not an EU enclave in the Balkans any more.
 
"There is going to be a common land border with another EU country," said Adelina Stoitcheva, executive director of the Hellenic Business Council in Sofia. She says this will remove many existing obstacles to Bulgarian-Greek trade.
 
Stoycheva also expects an increase in Greek investment in Bulgaria and Romania, especially in infrastructure.
 
"Road infrastructure will attract investment, as it is of crucial importance to trade with the other EU countries," said Stoycheva.
 
Greece also appreciates the political value of the latest round of enlargement. And it was quick to use the new development to serve its own diplomatic goals.
 
"The accession of Bulgaria and Romania in the EU sends a positive message towards all the countries that wish to join the Union," said the Greek prime minister, Kostas Karamanlis.
 
"The message is that fulfilling the European requirements is worth it," he added - words that the newspaper Kathimerini took as a veiled dig at Turkey to climb down in its refusal to fully recognise the Greek Cypriot government in Nicosia.

 
Albena Shkodrova is BIRN country director for Bulgaria, Predrag Popovic is a BIRN correspondent, Tamara Causidis is a BIRN Macedonia editor, Merim Tenev is a reporter at Bulgarian National Radio.