change font size

print version

copyright

Other languages:

Mayor With Charisma Bids for Power in Bulgaria

11 12 2006  Boyko Borisov aims to become a major political force by drawing votes from the centre-right and centre-left.

By Krassen Nikolov in Sofia (Balkan Insight, 1 Dec 06)

Bulgarians anticipate a major shift on the country's political landscape after the charismatic mayor of Sofia, Boyko Borisov, at the weekend announced the launch of his new party, GERB.

Polls suggest the party, whose name is short for Citizens for the European Development of Bulgaria, can count on the support of about 15 per cent of the population.
 
If this translates into votes in an election, GERB could emerge the second biggest party after the ruling Bulgarian Socialist Party, BSP.
 
Analysts predict that the centrist GERB will reshape the political status quo, drawing voters from the fragmented "democratic" wing, centrists from The National Movement Simeon the Second, NDSV and some left-wing voters, too.
 
Some believe GERB may replace the older "post-socialist" right-wing parties and become a stabilising centrist force. Others are less convinced, saying its populist nature means it will probably rise and then fall as abruptly as the NDSV did a few years ago.
 
The popularity of GERB, which only now has begun to operate formally after months of semi-official existence, derives almost solely from the fame of its leader.
 
Borisov, a colorful personality with excellent communications skills and an instinct for self-promotion, started out politically in the circle of Simeon Saxcoburggotski, the former exiled king turned-prime-minister.
 
When the monarch returned to Bulgaria in 2001, he capitalised on a strong anti-establishment sentiment by winning 120 of the 240 seats in the parliament after only three months of campaigning.
 
But the NDSV never developed a clear political character and soon crumbled into a number of interest groups and high profile independent personalities.
 
Borisov is one of them. A former close assistant and bodyguard of Simeon's, he became chief secretary of the interior ministry, where the police actions he organised lent him a flamboyant, macho image.
 
Though never a formal member of the NDSV, Borisov ran in the 2004
parliamentary elections, performing well for the party. Subsequently, he  demanded the post of interior minister. But his wish was declined and NDSV agreed to give the post to its coalition partner, the BSP, causing a rift between Borisov and the NDSV.
 
His emergence as an independent figure on the political scene caused much nervousness amongst the other parties who felt threatened by his growing popularity - with good reason, as he easily won the race to become mayor of Sofia later that year.
 
Now his own party is finally active, analysts are unanimous it will have some impact, though some view it as a populist formation with no real substance.
 
Sociologist Zhivko Georgiev said GERB and NDSV resemble one another in combining a populist outlook with a charismatic leader.
 
"I expect populism to show its face in the behavioral style of the new party though not so much in its platform," predicted Georgiev. "This party will be the next leader-based party in the chain and that will limit its influence and longevity."
 
In the last presidential campaign this autumn, the mayor's actions were often seen as inconsistent. At first, he said he would support the right's common candidate, Nedelcho Beronov, releasing a letter explaining why he would not back the socialist candidate, Georgi Purvanov, who later won the contest hands down.
 
Later, Borisov changed his mind and said he would support no one. In the latter stages of the campaign, Borisov expressed some support for Purvanov - although informal, and very half-hearted and he even made gestures towards the far-right, Ataka party.
 
Political scientist Veselin Stoynev said Borisov would attempt to win power by forging as wide a coalition as possible.
 
Significantly, over the last week, GERB has signed two agreements on
cooperation with two centre-right formations - the agricultural union
BZNS-NS and the movement European Democratic Way, EDP. Borisov himself has publicly stated a preference for centre-right options.
 
But at the same time, GERB has forged excellent relations with the Social Democrat movement of Nikolay Kamov, which is currently a parliamentary coalition partner of the BSP.
 
And Borisov has also repeatedly stated his respect for Ataka, describing it as "the real opposition" to the government, while also warning against Ataka's hard-line nationalism.
 
Borisov's right-hand man and one of the main actors in the creation of GERB, Tsvetan Tsvetanov, is an equally ambiguous politician, recently declaring that "despite GERB's right-centrist orientation it is counting on receiving the centre-left votes as well".
 
Stoynev says the ill-defined political profile of the party may well limit its ability to stay the course.
 
"Borisov will probably have great political influence but it will be limited on the one hand by Ataka, which holds the hard-core nationalist electorate, and on the other hand by the smaller rightist parties, which to a large extent will retain their voters," Stoynev maintained.
 
Krasimir Kamenov, a member of the leadership of the Union of Democratic Forces, SDS, agrees, saying the older parties have only lost the confidence of the voters temporarily.
 
"Political processes naturally involve periods of gaining and losing trust and at the moment, we have rightly lost that trust," he said.
 
He said GERB might suffer from being overburdened with disappointed voters'expectations.
 
"At the moment, they are moving along Sakskoburggotski's trajectory and the next elections will see them getting a solid representation," he added.
 
"But if Borisov says he leans to the right, to gain the trust of right-wing electorate and then later forms a coalition with BSP, the fate of NDSV and Sakskoburggotski will catch up with him."
 
The fate of the NDSV is certainly a salutary warning to all parties on the dangers of confusing voters about your identity. Since joining the ruling coalition with the left, its ratings have dropped to a minute two per cent in the polls.
 
For his part, Borisov rejects the populist label. "I am not a populist I am a responsible person," he argued recently.
 

Krassen Nikolov is a journalist with Mediapool.bg in Sofia and a Balkan Insight contributor. Balkan Insight is BIRN's online publication.