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Joining EU May Shake Up Bulgarian Criminal Priorities

16 11 2006  Drugs trafficking and VAT fraud is expected to grow after 2007, but removal of border controls could reduce people smuggling.

By Krassen Nikolov in Sofia (Balkan Insight, 16 Nov 06)

EU membership is expected to alter the priorities of the criminal underworld in Bulgaria, boosting some forms of trafficking while others decline.

A recent report of the country's National Investigative Service, NIS, which Balkan Insight has seen, said the removal of most border controls with the EU is likely to boost drugs trafficking and VAT fraud.

Extremist organisations are also expected to develop their interests in the country once it is part of Europe.

The fluid criminal scene will pose a fresh challenge to Bulgaria's police and courts, which the EU has fiercely criticised for inefficiency and corruption.

As the NIS report said, "Organised crime is becoming more sophisticated much faster than Bulgarian authorities develop their abilities to counteract it."

Drug trafficking is already the most profitable criminal activity in Bulgaria. Numerous police reports, including the annual report by the US State Department, have pointed to Bulgaria's strategic importance in this field.

They maintain Bulgaria is the gate of entry for at least two important drugs channels leading into Europe, worth up to ten billion euro annually.

The second most profitable criminal business in the country is the traffic in excise goods. Not far behind are human trafficking, money laundering and various frauds linked to VAT goods.

Tihomir Bezlov, of the think-tank, the Center for Study of Democracy, says most of the 400 million euro made in Bulgaria through the underground "black" economy comes from drugs.

Most experts expect that figure to double in the next few years. The state customs agency's statistics confirm this expectation. Its recent reports reveal a hike in the quantities of drugs seized on the borders.

In 2005, they sized 1,137 kilogrammes of illegal substances while this year the figure had reached 1,358 kg by October.

The NIS predicts a marked growth in the local production of synthetic drugs in Bulgaria and Romania over the next few years.

"The quantity of drugs will probably not rise but their price will," said Atanas Atanasov, a former head of the National Security Service and an opposition deputy.

"As the EU builds up strong security along its external borders the value of the traffic will increase."

Tihomir Bezlov is more sceptical over the impact on the drugs trade of joining the EU.

"Nothing will happen on January 1," he said. "Drugs trafficking may grow but it will not happen overnight."

Bezlov said it was important to note that until Bulgaria and Romania join the Schengen agreement, controls will remain on the country's borders.

The NIS experts also expect human trafficking to grow in importance, taking over in second place from the smuggling of excise goods.

In 2004, the courts prosecuted 1,645 Bulgarians for such offenses. In 2006, the figure had risen to almost 2,000 - a year-on-year increase of about ten per cent.

However, Atanasov said he thought this trade may fall in value after 2007, "Once border controls are removed and people travel more freely, the price [of smuggling people into Europe] will go down."

There is a wide consensus among local experts that VAT fraud will grow over the coming years.

The country's VAT revenue is expected to drop sharply after 2007, as EU membership will lessen the border control on the imports from countries in the union. The government has already made provision in the 2007 budget for a drop of 225 million euro in income from this source.

Terrorism is another potential growth area. As an EU member, analysts believe Bulgaria will become a more attractive base for extremist groups who at the same time will try to recruit within the local Muslim community.

Until now, Bulgaria has had no serious problems with terrorism and the police are far from vigilant about the threat.

When a journalist, Angel Zafirov, earlier this year, tried to test the interest of the security services in potential bomb threats, by placing a cardboard box containing chemicals in a Sofia underground station, no one even noticed.

Police found the box only after the journalist drew their attention to its presence.

The security forces have occasionally voiced concerns about the growth in Islamist extremism, mostly in connection with the preaching of ultra-conservative Islamic ideas to the local Muslim community.

But with the exception of a couple of cases concerning extremist sermons, no charges have been served to date.

Nonetheless, analysts believe terrorism is a growing threat to Bulgaria purely on account of its global proliferation.

"This is a strategic problem," said Atanasov. "Vast financial resources have been accumulated in many Arabic countries, and they [Islamic radicals] will certainly try to establish their influence in the area by financing various groups."

The authorities say they are up to the challenge posed by this and other forms of illegal activity.

"New sorts of crimes are emerging that are not typical of Bulgarian society," said chief prosecutor Boris Velchev, referring to economic crimes. "We need time to prepare to tackle them."


Krassen Nikolov is a journalist with Mediapool.bg in Sofia. Balkan Insight is BIRN`s online publication.