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Maverick Makes Splash in Race for Bulgarian Presidency

05 10 2006  Right-wing populist looks set to come second - well ahead of candidates of more established parties.

By Albena Shkodrova in Sofia (Balkan Insight 5 Oct 06)

Bulgarians may have to choose between their current left-wing incumbent and a version of the French far-rightist Jean-Marie Le Pen, when they vote for a president later this month.

Opinion polls at the start of the election campaign two weeks ago showed that President Georgi Purvanov, the former leader of the Socialist Party, stands by far the best chance to win.

The respected Alpha Research polling agency put Purvanov on 37 per cent, streets ahead of his next rival, the leader of the right-wing Ataka party,Volen Siderov, on 8.9 per cent.

As many pollsters also believe fewer than the 50 per cent required to elect a head of state will vote in the first round, the contest may still have to go through to a second round against the runner-up, however. This is most likely to be Siderov.

Bulgaria expects to join the European Union in three months - the result of a successful ten-year-long national bid to draw a line under the country's Socialist past.

Political observers say it is ironic that instead of the political circles that set the association process in motion triumphantly leading Bulgaria into the EU, the centre-right democrats will meet this historic date in a state of crisis.

Their virtual collapse has not only comforted the successors to the old Communist party but also the nationalists in Ataka.

Analysts agree that nothing can stop Siderov from coming second in the presidential election, unless his own gaffes trip him up.

After the fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989, rivalry between the democrats, the main opponents of the former regime, and the successors of the Communist Party - the Bulgarian Socialist Party, BSP - dominated the political landscape for a decade.

At the turn of the new century, this bipolar model was broken by the arrival of the centrist National Movement Simeon The Second, NDSV, which stormed onto the political scene in 2001, winning an absolute majority in the general elections only months later.

Predictions of political experts that a powerful centrist party was destined to dominate the scene never came true. Gathered around the figure of Bulgaria's last monarch, the NDSV never developed a strong political character.

After its support shrunk from 43 per cent in the 2001 general elections to less then 22 per cent in 2005, the party agreed to join the current coalition with the socialists.

Since then, it has faded away. One recent proof of its decline was its decision not to put up a candidate in the coming presidential election.

As for the democrats, who led the nation out of the former Soviet bloc and started difficult and socially unpopular economic reforms, they remain fractured and in a deep leadership crisis since losing government in 2001.

They contested the last general elections as three separate parties and coalitions, together gaining less then 22 per cent of the seats in parliament.

Today their chance of winning the presidential election seems nil. While the Alpha Research poll put Purvanov on 37 per cent and Siderov on 8.9 per cent, the democrats' joint candidate, Nedelcho Beronov, scored only 5.5 per cent.

The big issue now is whether the Ataka leader will stay in second place, so consolidating the position of his hard-line nationalist party.

Sociologists say that one factor working in his support is the failure of the democratic wing to agree on a charismatic alternative.

Sociologist Genoveva Petrova of Alpha Research says “There has been no centrist or democratic candidate who would consolidate the voters.”

Although in their media appearances these parties leaders admitted the need to consolidate forces months before the coming presidential election, personal rivalries and historic hostilities stymied an alliance.

In the end, after no other democratic leaders proved acceptable to the rest, they chose an elderly judge outside their circle, Nedelcho Beronov, who is 78.

Though a refined speaker with a restrained personality, public opinion polls show he has little popular appeal.

"If they had picked a more appealing personality, they might have stood a chance," a source close to the democratic wing admitted.

Even the usual followers of the democratic wing seem uninspired. The Alpha Research poll suggested 23 per cent of them may not vote at all on October 22.

This percentage of likely abstainers among the democrats is substantially bigger than the same among other parties. The same poll said only eight to nine per cent of socialist and Ataka supporters would not vote.

Siderov's growing popularity also reflects frustrations over the drawn-out EU accession process over the past 17 years, and fears that membership may damage small businesses - cards that Ataka is eager to play.

Siderov is, in fact, riding a wave of distrust in all state institutions and political establishments.

Yuliana Metodieva, of the Bulgarian Helsinki Committee, notes that he has tapped into a mood of undefined anger.

"His speeches regularly start with 'We are furious!' or 'We are enraged!'" she said.

Her organisation has recorded dozens of cases in which Siderov has openly attacked ethnic Turks and Gypsies as well as playing on people's fears of further, EU-linked reforms.

Despite his convincing advance, Siderov may yet fall victim to his or his followers' gaffes, however.

Last week, his stepson, Dimitur Stoyanov, 23, a deputy leader of Ataka, caused a scandal after attending the European parliament in Strasbourg.

The furore erupted after Stoyanov made racist comments in an email about Lívia Járóka, a Hungarian Roma deputy that were later leaked.

After European deputies protested, Stoyanov was removed from the list of Bulgarian observers.

His letter had even greater effect at home, where politicians, the media and most of the public united in condemnation.

On commercial television's most popular evening show, the host, well known for his patriotic stance, attacked Stoyanov's act, addressing touching words to the offended Hungarian deputy.

Many wonder if Siderov's standing will now suffer. "We may be able to see his rating shrink this week," said Metodieva.

"People feel the image of Bulgaria has been marred and this is really precious to them. Besides, Stoyanov's letter was sexist, and this is not popular with Bulgarians."


Albena Shkodrova is BIRN Bulgaria country director. Balkan Insight is BIRN's online publication.