change font size

print version

copyright

Other languages:

Poor Poll Result Threatens Socialists' New Chief

02 11 2006  If the Socialist Party leader Edi Rama does badly in forthcoming local elections, doubts will be cast over his political future.

By Erlis Cela in Tirana (Balkan Insight, 2 Nov 06)

Local elections in Albania may pose a challenge for Edi Rama, the new leader of the opposition Socialist Party, PS, as he attempts to escape from the shadow of his charismatic predecessor, Fatos Nano, and show that Socialists can win an election without their former chief at the helm.

Besides leading the fight to gain at least as many seats in local authorities as the Socialists hold now, he has to counter a growing threat from Nano's supporters.

The date of the election has yet to be announced by President Alfred Moisiu, though under the constitution polls should take place between December 20 and January 20 next year - 30 to 60 days after the mandate of the present municipal authorities expires. As voting is unlikely over Christmas or New Year, the expected date is January 14.

The ruling centre-right Democratic Party, PD, under Sali Berisha want to keep to the December 20-January 20 timeframe.

But Socialists want the polls postponed until next spring, citing problems with the election infrastructure. They say holding an election in December or January means there will be almost no voting in many remote areas, owing to bad weather conditions.

They claim this may facilitate election malpractice on the part of the Democrats. They already accuse the PD of trying to rig the polls by distributing more than a million fake ID cards that can be used to vote. Democrats refute the accusation.

Many analysts say the real reason the new Socialist leader wants a delay to the vote is because he needs more time to establish his authority over the PS.

The mayor of Tirana has led the party for only a year but has already encountered difficulties trying to convince members of his agenda.

Nano himself has openly criticised his successor, suggesting his leadership resembles that of Berisha, who is widely seen as authoritarian.

Rama was "imitating Berisha's bad style in leading the Socialist Party", he said.

It was a serious blow to the new Socialist leader's credibility. Nano's supporters have also voiced opposition to Rama in public. One parliamentary deputy, Taulant Balla, accused him on television of "trying to lead the party through authoritarian means".

Other officials have made it clear they prefer their old party boss, making it hard for Rama to preserve the fragmented coalition of the left inside the party and keep it on balance.

If the Socialists do poorly in the local elections, analysts predict bigger rebellions will erupt from among the pro-Nano faction.

Artan Hoxha, director of the Tirana-based Institute for Contemporary Affairs, said the elections are a risk for Rama.

"If Rama loses, this may be the beginning of the end for his career, as there are many contenders for the party leadership," he said.

"Rama must not forget that Nano will become even more influential if he fails to lead the party to victory."

Hoxha claimed Rama had not been a natural choice as leader, as his elevation had resulted mainly from of a lack of obvious alternatives among PS ranks during the post-election period.

Robert Rakipllari, editor of Panorama newspaper, agreed that Rama now faced a difficult few months.

"The elections will make it clear whether the left-wing public opinion or electorate likes Rama's style and approach to politics or not," he said. "If they lose, his mandate as Socialist leader will be in question."

If Nano does stage a comeback, however, it could only increase the danger of splits inside the Socialists. Many supporters have said they will not welcome a second spell with Nano as leader.

Erion Brace, editor of the Socialist newspaper Zeri i popullit and a parliamentary deputy, has come out against Nano's recent actions as damaging, saying he is putting personal interest above those of the party. Brace said the party should not hesitate to expel those who run counter to its political line.

Nano was the undisputed leader of the party from its foundation in 1991 to last year. To many party activists he remains "the historical leader".

When he resigned after the Socialists lost the elections in July 2005, he all but disappeared from the public eye.

Before making a TV appearance this summer, he kept a low profile, barely taking part in sessions of parliament or party meetings. His only regular public sightings were at diplomatic events in western embassies.

It was Nano who first invited Rama into the PS cabinet but they fell out. Rama was not seen as a true politician. He had left the country for France in 1997 in the hectic atmosphere of near anarchy that year, saying Berisha supporters had attacked him.

It was only after his return and after he became mayor of Tirana that he joined the party as a member.

As mayor he showed himself to be an energetic and charismatic leader of the capital over five years, winning widespread praise at home and abroad.

Many say, however, that the style of leadership he developed in running the capital has not proved so suitable to management of a political party.

One Socialist party official in Tirana said all leaders needed to bear responsibility for election results, suggesting Rama should resign if the PS lose the next polls.

Others disagreed, saying Rama cannot be blamed for defeat after such a short time in office.

Marko Bello, a pro-Rama deputy in parliament, said, "I don't believe a bad result for the Socialists will cost Rama anything. It wouldn't be fair to seek an explanation from Rama for all the consequences."

Rama himself has made it clear that he will see the next polls as a personal test and will not resign in the event of a defeat.

But in the meantime, most indicators are that the PD will do well. If they perform as they hope, and seize control of the capital, Tirana, it may well become hard for Rama to continue to run the main opposition party, whether he wants to or not.

Erlis Cela is a journalist with Standard daily. Balkan Insight is BIRN's online publication.